Disintegration and Trade

The gravity model of trade is utilized to assess the impact of disintegration on trade. The analysis is based on three recent disintegration episodes involving the former Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. The results point to a very strong home bias around the time of disintegration, with intra-union trade exceeding normal trade approximately 43 times in the former Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia, and 24 times in the former Yugoslavia. Disintegration was followed by a sharp fall in trade intensity. Nevertheless, there is a considerable hysteresis in economic relations, with trade flows among the former constituent Republics still between two and 30 times greater than normal trade in 1998.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39737/3/wp353.pd

Disintegration and Trade

The gravity model of trade is utilized to assess the impact of disintegration on trade. The analysis is based on three recent disintegration episodes involving the former Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. The results point to a very strong home bias around the time of disintegration, with intra-union trade exceeding normal trade approximately 43 times in the former Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia, and 24 times in the former Yugoslavia. Disintegration was followed by a sharp fall in trade intensity. Nevertheless, there is a considerable hysteresis in economic relations, with trade flows among the former constituent Republics still between two and 30 times greater than normal trade in 1998.Gravity model, international trade, disintigration

Foreign Languages and Trade

Cultural factors and especially common languages are well-known determinants of trade. By contrast, the knowledge of foreign languages was not explored in the literature so far. We combine traditional gravity models with data on fluency in the main languages used in EU and candidate countries. We show that widespread knowledge of languages is an important determinant of foreign trade, with English playing an especially important role. Other langauges (French, German, and Russian) play an important role mainly in particular regions. Furthermore, we argue that the effect of foreign langauges on trade may be non-linear. The robustness of our results is confirmed by quantile regressions.

Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth During Post-Communist Transition

This paper explores interactions between growth, economic liberalization and democratization during transition. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) Liberalization has a strong positive effect on growth during transition (also when controlling for endogeneity of liberalization in growth). (2) Democracy facilitates economic liberalization. (3) Because of its effect on liberalization, democracy has a positive overall effect on growth. Nevertheless, the marginal effect of democracy (after controlling for progress in economic liberalization) is negative during early transition. (4) The progress in democratization in turn depends on past economic performance in a surprising manner-the relationship between past growth and subsequent democracy appears negative. (5) Economic performance is an important determinant of electoral outcomes and, in particular, of support for reforms.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39756/3/wp372.pd

Migration and Regional Adjustment and Asymmetric Shocks in Transition Economies

Does migration facilitate regional adjustment to idiosyncratic shocks? The evidence from post-communist economies indicates that the efficacy of migration in reducing inter-regional unemployment and wage differentials has in fact been rather low. High wages appear to encourage, and, similarly, high unemployment tends to discourage, overall migration - inbound and outbound - rather than induce a net flow from depressed regions to those with better economic conditions. Even when the impact of unemployment and wages on net migration is statistically significant, it is economically very small. Finally, migration flows have actually been declining in the course of transition, even as inter-regional disparities have been rising.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39825/3/wp441.pd

Integration, disintegration and trade in Europe: Evolution of trade relations during the 1990s

The gravity model of trade is used to assess the economic consequences of new borders, which arose in the wake of break-ups of multinational federations in Eastern Europe. The intensity of trade relations among the constituent parts of Czechoslovakia, Soviet Union and the Baltics was very high around the time of disintegration, exceeding the normal level of trade approximately 40 times. Disintegration has been followed by a sharp fall in trade intensity. On the other hand, the trade liberalization between East and West has lead to gradual normalization of trade relations, and liberalization within CEFTA has reversed the fall in trade intensity among Central European countries. --Gravity Model,International Trade,European Integration,Disintegration

Labor Mobility during Transition: Evidence from the Czech Republic

In this paper, I analyze the development of inter-regional mobility in the Czech Republic during the transition from central planning to a market economy. I show that the intensity of migration is low and even has fallen during the transition regional disparities in unemployment rates and earnings have increased. More importantly, labor mobility is little effective in facilitating labormarket adjustment to employment shocks. Using aggregate inter-regional migration data and survey data on past and prospective migration and the willingness to move. I find that economic factor play little role in explaining migration patterns. There is, nonetheless, some tentative evidence of the greater importance of economic considerations in explaining future migration intentions and the willingness to move. Thus, while at present migration appears more of a social or demographic rather than economic phenomenon, its economic role may strengthen in the future.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40153/3/wp767.pd

Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Break-up of Czechoslovakia

In 1993, Czechoslovakia experienced a two-fold break-up: On January 1, the country disintegrated as a political union, while preserving an economic and monetary union. Then, the Czech-Slovak monetary union collapsed on February 8. We analyze the economic background of the two break-ups, and discuss lessons for the stability of monetary unions in general. We argue that Czechoslovakia fulfilled some of the optimum currency area criteria, however, given the low correlation of permanent shocks, it appears it was relatively less integrated than some other existing unions. That, along with low labor mobility and a higher concentration of heavy and military industries in Slovakia, made the Czechoslovak economy vulnerable to asymmetric economic shocks-such as those induced by the economic transition. Furthermore, the Czech-Slovak monetary union was marred by low credibility, lack of political commitment, low exit costs, and the absence of fiscal transfers.Optimum currency areas, disintegration, Czechoslovakia

Migration and adjustment to shocks in transition economies

Does migration serve as an effective channel of regional adjustment to idiosyncratic shocks in transition economies? If so, one should find a strong relationship between regional unemployment and average wages on the one hand, and migration flows on the other. Yet, the evidence from transition economies indicates that the efficacy of migration in reducing inter-regional unemployment and wage differentials has been low. High wages appear to stimulate overall mobility rather than encourage a net immigration, and the effect of unemployment is statistically weak and not robust. In addition, the effect of unemployment and wages on net migration flows is economically insignificant and the overall level of migration has fallen during transition. --Migration,Unemployment,Regional Shocks

Labor Mobility during Transition: Evidence from the Czech Republic

In this paper, I analyze the development of inter-regional mobility in the Czech Republic during the transition from central planning to a market economy. I show that the intensity of migration is low and even has fallen during the transition regional disparities in unemployment rates and earnings have increased. More importantly, labor mobility is little effective in facilitating labormarket adjustment to employment shocks. Using aggregate inter-regional migration data and survey data on past and prospective migration and the willingness to move. I find that economic factor play little role in explaining migration patterns. There is, nonetheless, some tentative evidence of the greater importance of economic considerations in explaining future migration intentions and the willingness to move. Thus, while at present migration appears more of a social or demographic rather than economic phenomenon, its economic role may strengthen in the future.Migration, Mobility, Labor-market Adjustment, Regional Shocks, Survey data.